Monday, February 28, 2011

bajo promedio

Fecha 4 starts on Friday with a matchup in Floresta featuring a surging All Boys side against a floundering Ciclon. The Derby of La Plata offers another intriguing clash, as well as Argentinos Jrs. visiting El Monumental (both teams undefeated through three games), and el clasico Boca - Velez.

At this point in the tournament, the games matter more for improving averages than for accumulating points to win the title or to enter the copas. Surely the latter two goals matter, but one win or one loss is easier to think of in terms of helping or hurting a team's promedio. As mentioned before (http://futbolargentino08.blogspot.com/2008/10/ord-to-eze.html), the system was put in place to ensure that the remaining 3 out of the 5 grandes would never descend after (Racing Club and San Lorenzo did in the 1990s.) Fast-forward 10 years, and River (16th), Boca and (9th) and Independiente (15th) are all in danger of descending within the next few years unless they score some serious wins this semester. Even a deep run in Libertadores will not help Independiente's bajo promedio.

The doubles pairing of Chela and Schwank will likely cost Argentina in the 2011 Davis Cup. Even though most of the matches will be at home, thanks to the bewildering alternating annual schedule, the lack of strong volleyers has always been the bane of the Ensaladera de Plata resting on the banks of the Rio de la Plata.

However, I would not like to bet against Nalbandian and Del Potro sweeping their way to the finals against Spain or France, and possibly this time the ATA won't blow off the ITF, the Orfeo de Cordoba will be sanctioned, and Nalby can retire with the one title he covets the most.

While inflation was the fear just two months ago in emerging markets, and food costs remain high, slowing economic growth is becoming a problem. Even though growth rates versus last year are up nearly 10% due to high commodity prices, this type of growth causes Dutch disease, the syndrome of an export laden economy prone to currency appreciation (not in post-default inflationary ARG) and non export disfunction.


Sunday, February 27, 2011

Week 4

Clausura

River Plate and Olimpo are atop the standings with seven points after a rather uneventful slate of games in the local league. The week ahead should be interesting, as national team practice begins on Monday and Tuesday, and Boca continues to play without Riquelme due to a dispute with Coach Falcioni (Riquelme does this with every coach he has ever played for). In the most meaningful game of the fecha, Argentinos Jrs. valiantly tied rival Velez Sarsfield 1-1, maintaining their undefeated streak in both competitions this semester.

Copa

Godoy Cruz hosts Penarol on Tuesday, El Semi travels to Montevideo on Wednesday to face Nacional with a chance to take control of the group and focus on some local league games (although something tells me Troglio plays each game the same way), Velez hosts U. Catolica on Thursday and troubled Independiente plays in the altitude of Quito.

Delray Beach

Del Potro powered through the Roddick-less draw, beating Mardy Fish then Janko Tipsarevic to claim his first crown (and 250 ATP points) since 2009. This win was huge for many reasons: to remember what winning feels like, to regain a normal ranking, and to get some legs heading into Indian Wells, the "5th major."

Global Events

Lets keep our eye on the Egyptian stock exchange tomorrow morning, as well as oil prices. Rumblings should start to heat up leading up to the October presidential elections. Food for thought regarding Kirchner isolationism: Paraguay overtook Argentina as beef exporter in 2010 confirming the country’s loss of leadership in the world’s meat markets.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Week 3

All boys wins again? Don't look now, but Ortega is playing in meaningful games in the local league. The Ageless One may have another 10 years to play.

In other news, River Plate staved off Huracan to win 2-0 to keep powerful financial backers interested for another week or so, until the financiers finally commit to the team playing the brutal Promocion.

Racing Club took a step backwards with a 1-0 loss to Boca, and Estudiantes de la Plata defeated a winless Quilmes squad 1-0 to ease the pressure of the 5-0 midweek drubbing at the hands of Cruzeiro.

Expect the tension to build heading into the Davis Cup weekend March 4-6, and the following months leading into Copa America and the definition of the Copa Libertadores.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Week 1

Le gente de Floresta perdieron contra Racing Club 1-0 para abrir el primer campeonato de los dos que disputan en 2011. Hay que recordar que tambien juegan las fechas FIFA, Copa America de local (varias locales tienen que prepara sus estadios, etc), y La Libertadores y Sudamericana. Por eso equipos como Estudiantes (con nuevo tecnico), Godoy Cruz, Argentinos, y Velez van a pelear por el titulo. Los otros grandes solo pueden pensar en entrar e las copas, o peor solo en mantener la permanencia (Gimnasia, River, Huracan).

Racing tiene ganas a seguir jugando bien, y gano sobre un All Boys muy fuerte, sin Ortega todavia. Uno de esos dos equipos van a entrar en una copa la proxima temporada.

Entre Independiente y Boca, es posible que uno de esos grandes puede jugar el Promo 2012 si no tienen una temporada de 20 puntos (por lo menos 6 ganas, varias empates y menos que 10 pierdes).