La Pincha Rata

Although Estudiantes was crauned Campion, I want to take this post a different direction. What do we take from this season and how do we look foward past the long break to next season's Clausura 2011.

Estudiantes is a great team. However, winning the local league, while a true mark of superior coaching, strategy, and fitness, is not the mark of a great franchise, as Argentinos Juniors showed in the first semester of 2010.

Now, remember, Estudiantes won Libertadores 2009. This team is a dynasty. The best team in Argentina.

My point is this: When will enough be enough. When will Estudiantes eat their fill. When will a team from Argentina win the Mundial de Clubes.

Commodity prices and Kirchner

If Argentina would have employed responsible monetary policy (not spending reserves to service debt, hedging inflationary risk against public spending, and not completely cowtowing to unions with 18% wage increases), today's extremely high farm commodity prices would be something to celebrate in the Cono Sur. However, the fact that grain and soybean oil prices (leading to 9% 2003-esque GDP growth) are going gangbusters is dampened by private inflation estimates of 30%.

Controlling inflation would have been relatively simple over the last couple years, thus preparing Argentines for the cyclical return of commodity revenues. Unfortunately, this type of growth does not create many opportunities for economic development. What is does do is provide capital for public works projects, currency stability (although 4:1 peso:USD is beneficial for exports) and the chance to return to international capital markets for additional sustainable financing.

Things are looking good for the the Argentine economy overall. However, the fact that a classic scenario of export-based inflationary growth is possible at this point shows the ineptitude of the federal government over the past 5 years.

Independiente - Goias Second Leg

On Wednesday night, Goias will enter Estadio Libertadores de America in the Buenos Aires south suburb of Avellaneda (literally across a parking lot from Estadio Juan Domingo Peron, home of eternal rival Racing Club "the Academy") looking to maintain the two goal advantage gained in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana final. Racing supporters have an additional reason to root for Goias to keep Independiente from scoring two goals: the Sudamericana champion is now automatically entered into the Copa Libertadores 2011 (ironically taking the spot away from Racing, likely the last qualifier from Argentina based on this results this season).

Concurrently, the Apertura comes to an end in two weeks, making this weekend's games critical for how the title will be defined. Estudiantes faces Argentinos tonight, with the chance to maintain their lead on the line. Tomorrow, Velez Sarsfield plays already-Libertadores-qualified Godoy Cruz, and can tie or take the lead based on the result of today's game.

Copa Davis

France needs to win one singles match tomorrow (Monfils vs Djokovic or Simon vs Tipsarevic) to hoist the Ensaladera de Plata in Belgrade. Great way to conclude the indoor tennis season.

Independiente - Liga

Estadio Libertadores de America hosts by far the biggest game of its less-than-one-year existence today as the Red Devils host Liga de Quito in the second leg of the semifinal of the Copa Sudamericana (my favorite soccer tournament). This tournament provides the best chance for glory for the largest amount of teams. Along with Copa Libertadores, it provides opportunities for strategic personnel management by coaches due to the mid-week game format and because it is played simultaneously with the various local leagues throughout South America (and sometimes CONCACAF invitees).

Independiente must win 1-0 or 2-1 to advance to the final against already descended Goias. While Brasil futbol aficionados may declare Goias to be an unimportant side, an intercontinental trophy would do much to change that perception. Which brings us back to my point: the Copa Sudamericana, due to its broad and challenging format, is more than a chance to add prestige to middle-of-the-table clubs. Victory, in the case of Independiente, would salvage a horrible local tournament. In the case of Goias, it would allow them to remain relevant despite no longer playing in Brasil's top league.

Imagine what how a victory for either team could change the landscape of futbol in Latin America. The Ascension tournaments could gain a larger following and financial investments (although in many cases winning the Serie B is more profitable than languishing in the Serie A/Promocion). So, with tonight's crucial game in mind, let us analyze the matchups for Fecha 16 of the Torneo Apertura:

All Boys has the chance to continue their surprising climb up the table in their first season in the Primera since the 1970s against a Quilmes team currently in last place (descenso directo).

Racing, tied with All Boys for 6th place with 22 points, desperately needs to qualify for Libertadores to provide their fanbase with some excitement and revenue. A result against Banfield would help in this regard.

First place Estudiantes faces an Independiente side on Sunday that will be coming off a Thursday night game in which all their starters will play. Although beleaguered at 17th place with only 13 points, Independiente will surely play their starters in this game if they lose tonight. Stay tuned.

Finally, second place Velez plays Tigre with a chance to take the lead with only four games remaining if Estudiantes loses.

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Now on to international monetory policy. It seems that Argentina may no longer rankle capital markets. Recent news regarding full repayment of the $7 billion debt outstanding to the Paris Club of investors is welcome news to those awaiting accurate inflation statistics, currency stability, and lower debt spreads.

Does this mean that Argentina will borrow from the IMF once again? In my opinion, it should. Rather than spending hard-earned reserves to pay debt, Argentina should borrow money at a sustainable rate to finance public works and economic development initiatives. Kristina is unlikely to do this because it would be political suicide. However, these recent signs of pragmatism from the Cono Sur could signal an economic overhaul in a region that, with smarter policy management, has the chance to successfully combat high poverty rates and provide international investors with more emerging market opportunity.

DePaul Hoops

The DePaul mess took another step backward tonight at the Allstate Arena in Rosemont. The bleak corner of Touhy and Mannheim was the scene of a second half beat-down of DePaul by Rutgers. After leading by as many as 17 points with five minutes remaining in the first half, the Blue Demons were outscored something like 54-33 in the rest of the game, and were out-rebounded by 15 boards.

Down two with 42 seconds left, DePaul fouled with eight seconds left on the shotclock rather than continuing to play defense and play for the potential game winning shot.The end of the game was a comedy of errors that resulted in a 68-64 final score, with many fans headed to the exits when timeout was called with Rutgers leading by four with 11 seconds left.

What will the future hold for DePaul? The program is not improving. Luckily, Allstate Arena is small enough than crowds of less than 1,000 spectators don't seem TERRIBLY sparse. Granted, the crowds are EXTREMELY sparse. I don't know how many more seasons like this the program, or that building, can afford.
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ATP 250 de Buenos Aires

Nalbandian returned to the circuit with a victory over Starace 6-2, 7-6 (2) in a match played over the course of two days due to rain. His status for the Davis Cup in three weeks against Sweden is in doubt, but a deep run in his home tournament would give much needed confidence and ranking points at this point in his career. 2010 should be a year for David to improve physically, and prepare for one more run at the top ten. There is no place better than the Copa Telmex for such a journey to start. Nalbandian - Gimeno Traver (Wednesday 3:30 ET)

Fernando Gago of Real Madrid had one foot out the door for Real Madrid -was transferred to Manchester City- However, the final contract was not signed, the transfer window closed, and Gago will remain in Real Madrid.

At the same time, Robinho was lent to Santos, and was presented by Pele who heralded his recuperation and return to the seleccion for South Africa.

Finally, the second date of the Argentine Clausura is accelerated to mid-week due to the World Cup. River needs a win against Chacarita (Thursday 4pm ET), while Boca hosts Lanus on Wednesday night. Two intriguing Tuesday encounters feature defending champion Velez Sarsfield on the road against Arsenal followed by Racing going for a second win in a row at Colon de Santa Fe.

ATP 250 de Santiago

First Round

Chela and Monaco both won, setting up the best clay court match of the young year (Tuesday 9pm ET) for a birth in the quarterfinals. Monaco is the second seed behind Gonzalez. Chela is unseeded in the tournament.

Monfils, Ferrer and Rajeev Ram headline the SAP Open in Johannesburg, meanwhile Croatians Marin Cilic ,Ivan Ljubicic and Ivo Karlovic as well as Serb Janko Tipsarevic look to win a regionally important indoor event.