La Pincha Rata

Although Estudiantes was crauned Campion, I want to take this post a different direction. What do we take from this season and how do we look foward past the long break to next season's Clausura 2011.

Estudiantes is a great team. However, winning the local league, while a true mark of superior coaching, strategy, and fitness, is not the mark of a great franchise, as Argentinos Juniors showed in the first semester of 2010.

Now, remember, Estudiantes won Libertadores 2009. This team is a dynasty. The best team in Argentina.

My point is this: When will enough be enough. When will Estudiantes eat their fill. When will a team from Argentina win the Mundial de Clubes.

Commodity prices and Kirchner

If Argentina would have employed responsible monetary policy (not spending reserves to service debt, hedging inflationary risk against public spending, and not completely cowtowing to unions with 18% wage increases), today's extremely high farm commodity prices would be something to celebrate in the Cono Sur. However, the fact that grain and soybean oil prices (leading to 9% 2003-esque GDP growth) are going gangbusters is dampened by private inflation estimates of 30%.

Controlling inflation would have been relatively simple over the last couple years, thus preparing Argentines for the cyclical return of commodity revenues. Unfortunately, this type of growth does not create many opportunities for economic development. What is does do is provide capital for public works projects, currency stability (although 4:1 peso:USD is beneficial for exports) and the chance to return to international capital markets for additional sustainable financing.

Things are looking good for the the Argentine economy overall. However, the fact that a classic scenario of export-based inflationary growth is possible at this point shows the ineptitude of the federal government over the past 5 years.

Independiente - Goias Second Leg

On Wednesday night, Goias will enter Estadio Libertadores de America in the Buenos Aires south suburb of Avellaneda (literally across a parking lot from Estadio Juan Domingo Peron, home of eternal rival Racing Club "the Academy") looking to maintain the two goal advantage gained in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana final. Racing supporters have an additional reason to root for Goias to keep Independiente from scoring two goals: the Sudamericana champion is now automatically entered into the Copa Libertadores 2011 (ironically taking the spot away from Racing, likely the last qualifier from Argentina based on this results this season).

Concurrently, the Apertura comes to an end in two weeks, making this weekend's games critical for how the title will be defined. Estudiantes faces Argentinos tonight, with the chance to maintain their lead on the line. Tomorrow, Velez Sarsfield plays already-Libertadores-qualified Godoy Cruz, and can tie or take the lead based on the result of today's game.

Copa Davis

France needs to win one singles match tomorrow (Monfils vs Djokovic or Simon vs Tipsarevic) to hoist the Ensaladera de Plata in Belgrade. Great way to conclude the indoor tennis season.