Countdown to copa america

Because J-league games will now be played into July, Japan officially withdrew from the Copa America 2011 today.

Costa Rica, the United States, and Honduras are some names being thrown around as potential replacements, but with the Gold Cup being held in June 2011, these teams will have difficulty fielding A-squads and will likely send experimental sides. And since Mexico is already doing this, the competition would become too watered-down with two Concacaf B-squads in the 12 team field. Conmebol must look to Asia, Europe, or Africa in order to maintain the prestige of this event, the winner of which qualifies for the 2013 Copa Confederaciones in Brazil.

ATP 250s

US Mens Clay Court and Morocco tourneys this week, Mardy Fish and Albert Montanes are the respective #1 seeds. Both of these are showcase opportunities for players to move up the rankings and/or take home hardware like Juan Ignacio Chela did last year in Houston. A lot of the big boys are taking a break this week.

Fecha 8

Argentinos, Godoy Cruz, and Velez (one game less) are tied for second with 14 points, behind River and Estudiantes (leaders with 15). The table looks clogged at the moment: Argentinos has a group phase Libertadores game this week.

dos cositas mas

2 things happened today that merit consideration - Kazakhstan defeated the Czech Republic 3-2 in a Davis Cup first round tie to advance to face Argentina in Buenos Aires July 8-10. This is a huge accomplishment for Kazakhstan, a country that prioritized tennis and is now reaping the rewards of Kukushkin beating Jan Hajek (and Golubev beating #7 Berdych).

Also, Argentinos Juniors remained undefeated through four games in the Clausura and three games in the Copa Libertadores by tying River Plate 0-0 in Estadio Monumental.

Relaciones con el Club

Amidst growing agricultural and Chinese oil investments, the Paris Club of investors rejected Finance Minister Amado Boudou's latest long term debt modification proposal relating to the 2001 default. The group of creditors, mostly comprised of American and Italian bond and vulture funds, wants a faster repayment or punishment handed out by Judge Thomas Griesa of the Southern District of New York. In this scenario, similar IMF investigations and sanctions regarding false inflation statistics would extend to the debt negotiations. More fuel for the opposition heading into October elections?

Davis

Chela and Schwank proved me wrong, defeating Romania in straight sets to advance to the Quarterfinals the second week of July against the Czech Republic, also at home. Berdych, Hajek and co. will be a very dangerous opponent, even if Nalbandian is healthy and Del Potro is available following Wimbledon. David does not have to play Wimbledon because his ranking is healthy, but Del Potro cannot afford to miss any more majors at this point in his career.

Clausura

With an eye on midweek Libertadores, teams must still play their starters in order to gain points in the local league before having to make more serious decisions about playing time once the group phase starts winding down (halfway through the six games right now).

Argentinos Jrs has not lost a game this year, and faces the leader River Plate tomorrow at Estadio Monumental in Nunez. Troglio tries to win every game he coaches so no analysis is needed. As the season goes on, however, he will be faced with the toughest choice of his career: Whether to play or rest his starters in the Clausura.

Velez, with three points after two group phase games, must rebound at home against Boca in order to win their first game of the local tournament.

Finally, Thursday night's featured game is Godoy Cruz vs. Independiente in Libertadores de America. Loser of that game will have work to do in order to qualify for the round of 16. Although the group phase lasts until April 20th, the last few games are bound to feature some youngsters as teams try to balance playing mid-week and weekend matches.

Macri

The news with the most impact comes from the halls of the House of Representatives and Bogota (Colombia FTA is dead). However, Buenos Aires mayor Mauricio Macri announced that municipal elections will be held prior to the October 23 national vote, meaning he could possibly stand for both offices. Is he comfortable in his current role, and would his presence on the presidential ballot take votes away from Alfonsin, the other opposition candidate?

la tan ansiada ensaladera

Hanescu, ranked 59 in the world, must win all three matches he plays this weekend for Romania to defeat Argentina at Parque Roca this weekend. Expect nerves to play a role in his losses in singles, but I am willing to bet dollars to mangos that Chela and Schwank lose the doubles match on Saturday to Hanescu and his doubles-specialist partner. Argentina is too strong to lose this match, and will build momentum heading into the quarterfinals against the winner of Kazakhstan and the Czech Republic.

ARGT Global X ETF debuted today with 19,000 in volume. Look for this, as well as the price, to spike in the coming weeks.

2011

The Argentine presidential election in October pits incumbent Cristina Kirchner against Raul Alfonsin, the son of former president from 1983-1989, preceding Carlitos Saul Menem's reign of terror (see: dollar peg).

Cristina, overseeing massive inflows of commidity driven capital in pure Kirchner fashion, has done little to create anything other than transpotation union alliances with Hugo Moyano. True, the outpouring of grief surrounding her husband's death may propel her to carry Buenos Aires province, but I suspect the young Alfonsin to mount a serious challenge that may create meaningful counterarguments to the PJ's stranglehold on political doctrine.

Alfonsin may be a middle ground between Macri's far-right PRO and corporatist, unpragmatic charming Kirchnerismo (Read: young Duhalde).

bajo promedio

Fecha 4 starts on Friday with a matchup in Floresta featuring a surging All Boys side against a floundering Ciclon. The Derby of La Plata offers another intriguing clash, as well as Argentinos Jrs. visiting El Monumental (both teams undefeated through three games), and el clasico Boca - Velez.

At this point in the tournament, the games matter more for improving averages than for accumulating points to win the title or to enter the copas. Surely the latter two goals matter, but one win or one loss is easier to think of in terms of helping or hurting a team's promedio. As mentioned before (http://futbolargentino08.blogspot.com/2008/10/ord-to-eze.html), the system was put in place to ensure that the remaining 3 out of the 5 grandes would never descend after (Racing Club and San Lorenzo did in the 1990s.) Fast-forward 10 years, and River (16th), Boca and (9th) and Independiente (15th) are all in danger of descending within the next few years unless they score some serious wins this semester. Even a deep run in Libertadores will not help Independiente's bajo promedio.

The doubles pairing of Chela and Schwank will likely cost Argentina in the 2011 Davis Cup. Even though most of the matches will be at home, thanks to the bewildering alternating annual schedule, the lack of strong volleyers has always been the bane of the Ensaladera de Plata resting on the banks of the Rio de la Plata.

However, I would not like to bet against Nalbandian and Del Potro sweeping their way to the finals against Spain or France, and possibly this time the ATA won't blow off the ITF, the Orfeo de Cordoba will be sanctioned, and Nalby can retire with the one title he covets the most.

While inflation was the fear just two months ago in emerging markets, and food costs remain high, slowing economic growth is becoming a problem. Even though growth rates versus last year are up nearly 10% due to high commodity prices, this type of growth causes Dutch disease, the syndrome of an export laden economy prone to currency appreciation (not in post-default inflationary ARG) and non export disfunction.

Week 4

Clausura

River Plate and Olimpo are atop the standings with seven points after a rather uneventful slate of games in the local league. The week ahead should be interesting, as national team practice begins on Monday and Tuesday, and Boca continues to play without Riquelme due to a dispute with Coach Falcioni (Riquelme does this with every coach he has ever played for). In the most meaningful game of the fecha, Argentinos Jrs. valiantly tied rival Velez Sarsfield 1-1, maintaining their undefeated streak in both competitions this semester.

Copa

Godoy Cruz hosts Penarol on Tuesday, El Semi travels to Montevideo on Wednesday to face Nacional with a chance to take control of the group and focus on some local league games (although something tells me Troglio plays each game the same way), Velez hosts U. Catolica on Thursday and troubled Independiente plays in the altitude of Quito.

Delray Beach

Del Potro powered through the Roddick-less draw, beating Mardy Fish then Janko Tipsarevic to claim his first crown (and 250 ATP points) since 2009. This win was huge for many reasons: to remember what winning feels like, to regain a normal ranking, and to get some legs heading into Indian Wells, the "5th major."

Global Events

Lets keep our eye on the Egyptian stock exchange tomorrow morning, as well as oil prices. Rumblings should start to heat up leading up to the October presidential elections. Food for thought regarding Kirchner isolationism: Paraguay overtook Argentina as beef exporter in 2010 confirming the country’s loss of leadership in the world’s meat markets.

http://en.mercopress.com/2011/02/28/paraguay-exported-more-beef-than-argentina-in-2010

Week 3

All boys wins again? Don't look now, but Ortega is playing in meaningful games in the local league. The Ageless One may have another 10 years to play.

In other news, River Plate staved off Huracan to win 2-0 to keep powerful financial backers interested for another week or so, until the financiers finally commit to the team playing the brutal Promocion.

Racing Club took a step backwards with a 1-0 loss to Boca, and Estudiantes de la Plata defeated a winless Quilmes squad 1-0 to ease the pressure of the 5-0 midweek drubbing at the hands of Cruzeiro.

Expect the tension to build heading into the Davis Cup weekend March 4-6, and the following months leading into Copa America and the definition of the Copa Libertadores.

Week 1

Le gente de Floresta perdieron contra Racing Club 1-0 para abrir el primer campeonato de los dos que disputan en 2011. Hay que recordar que tambien juegan las fechas FIFA, Copa America de local (varias locales tienen que prepara sus estadios, etc), y La Libertadores y Sudamericana. Por eso equipos como Estudiantes (con nuevo tecnico), Godoy Cruz, Argentinos, y Velez van a pelear por el titulo. Los otros grandes solo pueden pensar en entrar e las copas, o peor solo en mantener la permanencia (Gimnasia, River, Huracan).

Racing tiene ganas a seguir jugando bien, y gano sobre un All Boys muy fuerte, sin Ortega todavia. Uno de esos dos equipos van a entrar en una copa la proxima temporada.

Entre Independiente y Boca, es posible que uno de esos grandes puede jugar el Promo 2012 si no tienen una temporada de 20 puntos (por lo menos 6 ganas, varias empates y menos que 10 pierdes).